Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame-Georgia Preview, Props & Prediction

The fourth semifinalist for the 2025 College Football Playoff will be determined when seventh seeded Notre Dame and No. 2 seed Georgia square off in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans on Thursday.The game was delayed a day following the suspected terrorist attack that killed at least 15 people and injured dozens more who were celebrating the New Year in New Orleans’ French Quarter.The game will now take place amid heightened security, with the winner moving on to face Penn State in the semifinals.ODDS AND TRENDSAfter Georgia (11-2) spent the majority of the week as a slight favorite at most sportsbooks, the consensus line had shifted to Notre Dame -1.0 at several sportsbooks by Wednesday night.The Bulldogs opened at -1.5 at BetMGM, but had flipped to underdogs despite the public backing Georgia with 54 percent of the spread-line bets and 51 percent of the money as of Thursday morning. Meanwhile, BetRivers reported 58 percent of the spread-line money backing Notre Dame (12-1), which was still a half-point underdog at the book.BetRivers also reported that only Arizona State and Marshall have had a better record against the spread this season than Notre Dame’s 10-2-1 mark. The Fighting Irish have also covered the spread in eight consecutive games, while the Bulldogs have failed to cover in four of their past six.The bowl season has produced numerous high-scoring affairs, and the 45.5 total points line at BetMGM has seen the Over draw 54 percent of the money.Four of the past six games for both teams have hit the Over at BetRivers.PROP PICKS–Georgia QB Gunner Stockton 2+ Passing TDs (+205 at DraftKings): This has been the most popular player prop at the book despite Stockton’s limited experience entering such a massive game. Carson Beck’s replacement has attempted only 32 passes all season, with 16 of them coming in place of the injured Beck in the SEC Championship Game. He did complete 75.0 percent of his passes while leading an effective offense to help secure an overtime victory over Texas.–Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-130 at BetMGM): The duel-threat quarterback has rushed for 751 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. Leonard didn’t need to use his legs as much in the rout of Indiana on Dec. 20, but did produce at least 41 rushing yards eight times this season.THE NEWSStockton replaced Beck and completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards with an interception in Georgia’s 22-19 overtime win against Texas. The victory solidified a playoff bye and extra preparation time for the Bulldogs, though they didn’t know their opponent until almost two weeks later when Notre Dame advanced with a 27-17 first-round playoff victory against Indiana in South Bend, Ind.Georgia head coach Kirby Smart said the extra time helped Stockton by giving him added reps with the first team, though the Bulldogs’ game preparation was limited until they knew their opponent.”I think the biggest thing (for Stockton) is just competition and practice, the situations we put him in,” Smart said. “All those things allow him to get better as a quarterback.”Stockton has completed 25 of 32 passes for 206 yards and no touchdowns this season, with one interception. Freshman Nate Frazier leads the running game with 634 yards and eight TDs on 129 carries.Freeman said he and his staff have “80-something plays” of Stockton to study.”He can run their offense,” Freeman said. “He does things a little bit differently. He can extend plays with his legs; he’s a good athlete. The thing I probably noticed most about him, he’s an ultra-competitive individual.”Smart downplayed the possibility that Stockton’s running ability will lead to much difference in the Bulldogs’ game plan.”We are who we are,” Smart said.

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